Okay, so as you might see in Murmur’s comment on the Eclipse post (and his comments on the Druid forums) some of the math was flawed. I was also requested to expand the math from the previous calculations, I assume for clarity’s sake. Here goes.

For starters, just to clarify, when we deal with critical strikes from our spells, due to Vengeance, they do double damage. Thus, if you have a 30% critical strike chance with a certain spell, then out of 100 spells 70 will do full damage and 30 will do double damage. If it does an average of 1000 damage per second without critting, this is equal to:

(1000×70) + (2000×30) / 100 = 1300 DPS. Thus, this can be simplified to multiplying your DPS with a given spell by (1 + C) where C is your critical strike chance with that spell as a decimal (i.e. 35.67% crit chance is .3567 as C).

Let’s reiterate the numbers from the previous post regarding max rank Starfire and Wrath as given to us by MMO-Champion.

Wrath: Causes 489-551 Nature damage to the target. 380 mana. Avg. 520 dmg.

Starfire: Causes 661-779 Arcane damage to the target. 555 mana. Avg. 720 dmg.

I was also requested to use more realistic numbers (which hurt my Moonkin pride, I’m at 865 and proud of it) for spell damage. 1000 was cited as very low for raid situations and let’s do some random speculation for WotLK damage numbers at pop that up to 2000. I know some high-end Moonkins are well above 1500 raid buffed, right? Well, I think so. So let’s hope that 2000 isn’t too high considering level 80 raid buffed. **Disclaimer: We actually have no idea. Level 80 isn’t even possible in Beta yet. But I bet it’s more than possible. **

I’m going to again assume Moonfury, Moonglow and Earth and Moon, as well as Master Shapeshifter (and additional 4% spell damage) which is likely in a min/max PvE build. By request a talented Curse of the Elements is being added which boosts Arcane damage an additional 13%. This is all intended for raiding mostly, and Wrath will be more on par with Starfire for PvP or soloing.

Wrath: 67.1% coefficient. Thus (2000 x .671) = 1342 + 520 = 1862. Total 20% damage increase from debuffs. (1862 x .20) + 1862 = 2234.4 damage on average. Mana cost lowered 9% to 346 mana. Spell cast speed = 1.5 seconds talented w/o NG. Thus we arrive at 1489.6 DPS and 6.458 DPM.

Starfire: 120% coefficient. Thus (2000 x 1.20) = 2400 + 720 = 3120. Total 20% + 13% damage increase from debuffs = 33%. (3120 x .33) +3120 = 4149.6 damage on average. Mana cost lowered 9% to 505 mana. Cast speed = 3.0 seconds talented w/o NG. Thus we arrive at 1383.2 DPS and 8.217 DPM.

Wrath’s DPS factoring in crits, assuming a modest 30% chance for that spell, we multiply by 1.30:

(1489.6 x 1.30) = 1936.5 DPS; (6.458 x 1.30) = 8.395 DPM

If Wrath is buffed from Eclipse and has it’s damage increased an additional 10% then simply multiply it’s DPS and DPM by 110%, I believe, to get 1638.6 DPS and 7.104 DPM. A big DPS boost and DPM boost, but not approaching. If we factor in for crits (which I believe comes last in calculations) we multiply by the crit chance and get:

(1638.6 x 1.30) = 2130.2 DPS; (7.104 x 1.30) = 9.235 DPM.

Now, let’s look at Starfire’s final DPS and DPM with and without the buff. Without, we multiply our numbers by 1.30 at 30% crit:

(1383.2 x 1.30) = 1798.2 DPS; (8.217 x 1.30) = 10.682 DPM.

With the buff, we multiply instead by 1.40 and get:

(1383.2 x 1.40) = 1936.5 DPS; (8.217 x 1.40) = 11.504 DPM.

Let me retype the final numbers so we can look at them all together.

Wrath: without buff–1936.5 DPS; 8.395 DPM

with buff–2130.2 DPS; 9.235 DPM

Starfire: without buff–1798.2 DPS; 10.682 DPM

with buff–1936.5 DPS; 11.504 DPM

So, those are some preliminary numbers. At 2000 spell damage and 30% crit for Wrath and Starfire (26% on your character sheet) we see, well, those numbers. Whether or not you think Eclipse is worth it depends on how much mana you have, but obviously Wrath is better to cast before than after the buff. I won’t pretend to know whether this is good enough for raid situations or not. I’ll let you be the judge.

Some people have suggested dropping only 1 point in Eclipse because while it’s a nice buff, it’s not necessary. When it procs, use it. Otherwise you’ll be OK. I kind of like that idea, simply because there are too many good talents around that are also very nice.

I hope that helped.

/wave

An In Depth Analysis of Eclipse–Math Included « Moon Chicken–A Warcraft Blog(20:51:57) :[...] [Update]: Be sure to check out my new and improved Eclipse theorycrafting post here. [...]

Murmurs(07:13:45) :Very nice update, and I feel it more accurately represents what a Druid would see in a normal raid setting (although it may only be 10% instead of 13% from CoE, but we’ll have to see how Warlocks adjust before making any conclusions there.)

The reason I felt that CoE was important was that this is a raid debuff that is virtually always going to be on a mob, unless for some reason you are not raiding with any Warlocks (which may become more common in 10 mans, but who knows.) And, from looking at the two different comparisons, you can see that CoE does have a significant impact on both the DPS and DPM of Starfire.

Depending on how talent trees work out, I am one of those supporters of putting just one point into Eclipse right now. The main issue I have with putting in all 3 points is that the buff has such a long internal cooldown and yet still only grants a 60% chance instead of 100%. Thus, no matter which way you choose to go, RNG still needs to have some liking to you in order for this talent to perform at its most optimal level.

Which reminds me to address something you mentioned in your reply to my previous comment: What makes the Wrath buff more appealing over the Starfire buff is that 10% crit may or may not actually have any real change in your overall damage or crit percentage within that time frame. It is a RNG issue, in that, despite now having 40% crit, you may still only see a 30% crit rate, or a 32%, or 35%, or even 16%. So, while theoretically the Starfire buff is better than the Wrath buff, it actual game play it may not always pan out to be that way.

The other issue is that, in order to get the Starfire buff, you need to be casting Wrath when it would be more optimal (from a DPM standpoint at least) to be casting Starfire. This is why I think it will be better over all to continue with using Starfire as the staple, and only switch over to Wrath once the buff procs itself. This minimizes Wrath usage while still providing a moderate DPS increase.

Again, very good write up and I am glad that there are people taking to the time to work through these things. :)

moonchicken(14:48:56) :Ah, yes, the explanation of the crit helps, thank you. That makes perfect sense. As for CoE, I checked MMO-Champion’s highest rank, which is 10% more damage (from the Beta) and then an Affliction Warlock is 3% more talented. So yes, it depends on whether you have an Aff warlock. 25 mans will, 10 mans will have at best 1 of each class and that could be Destro or Aff or even Demononolgy, so it’s less significant there.

And glad to help. Look at he mana regen post I put up yesterday too, you might be interested in that as well.

-Sylv

/wave